Bay Area $500K-Plus Home Sales Jump; Median Price Tops $400K
June 17, 2010
La Jolla, CA.----Sales rose across the Bay Area last month in many mid- to high-end neighborhoods, helping to push the median sale price over $400,000 for the first time in 21 months. But as tax credits, low mortgage rates and an ample supply of homes for sale fueled the $500,000-plus market, sales fell in many affordable inland areas where investors and first-time buyers faced a dwindling inventory of low-cost foreclosures, a real estate information service reported.
Last month a total of 8,264 homes closed escrows in the nine-county Bay Area, up 18.0 percent from 7,003 in April and up 11.0 percent from 7,447 in May 2009, according to MDA DataQuick of San Diego.
On average, Bay Area sales have risen 6.9 percent between April and May since 1988, when DataQuick’s statistics begin. Last month’s sales tally was the highest for a May since 9,935 homes sold in May 2006, but it was 16.0 percent below the May average of 9,842 sales since 1988.
Last month sales over $500,000 rose 33.8 percent from May 2009, when the high-end was just starting to emerge from a deep slump. Conversely, May sales of homes priced below $300,000 fell nearly 22.7 percent below the year-ago level. Last spring, sub-$300,000 sales were unusually high thanks to robust sales of low-cost inland foreclosures.
“For now, at least, we’re seeing a more normal mix of sales across the region and across price categories, thanks in large part to the state and federal tax credits coupled with incredibly low mortgage rates. It also appears that high-end financing is gradually loosening up,” said John Walsh, MDA DataQuick president.
“In the second half of the year, there’s obviously going to be less wind in the market’s sails, given the fading tax credits,” he said. “A healthier job market and low mortgage rates will be key to driving demand. Price stability would be threatened if lenders suddenly pushed much larger numbers of distressed properties onto the market.”
Foreclosure resales – homes that had been foreclosed on in the prior 12 months – fell to 27.3 percent of the Bay Area’s resale market last month. That was the lowest since April 2008 and was down from 29.5 percent in April and 40.5 percent in May 2009. Foreclosure resales peaked at 52.0 percent in February 2009.
The continued decline in sales of low-cost inland foreclosures helps explain how the Bay Area’s median sale price could rise more than 20 percent in a year. Last month the median paid for all new and resale houses and condos combined jumped to $410,000, up 10.8 percent from $370,000 in April and up 20.1 percent from $341,500 in May 2009.
The median has risen on a year-over-year basis for eight straight months, though in May it was still 38.3 percent below the $665,000 peak in June/July 2007.
The May median’s 20.1 percent annual gain reflects several factors, including the decline in foreclosure resales, price stability and modest price pressure in some areas, and the shift toward more high-end sales. Activity has picked up in the higher-cost areas in part because distress has increased over the last year and sellers have become more motivated and realistic.
Last month 40.7 percent of the homes sold in the Bay Area were priced $500,000 or above, up from 36.9 percent in April and up from 31.3 percent a year ago. The May figure was the highest since $500,000-plus transactions were 44.7 percent of all sales in August 2008.
Viewed another way, zip codes in the top one-third of the Bay Area market, based on their historical prices, accounted for 35.3 percent of existing single-family house sales last month – the highest in two years. Last month’s level was up from 31.6 percent in April and 27.2 percent a year ago. Over the past decade, the top third of the market averaged 32.1 percent of total regional sales, while the low point was 17.9 percent of sales in January 2009 and the high point was 43.5 percent in June 2007, just before the credit crisis began.
Today’s high-end sales could be stronger if jumbo and adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) were easier to obtain.
Jumbo loans, mortgages above the old conforming limit of $417,000, accounted for 35.1 percent of last month’s purchase lending, up from 31.5 percent in April and 25.8 percent in May 2009. Last month’s figure was the highest since it was 38.7 percent in December 2007. However, before the August 2007 credit crunch hit, jumbos accounted for nearly 60 percent of the market.
In May, 13.1 percent of all home purchase loans were ARMs, up from 11.1 percent in April and up from 3.5 percent a year ago. May’s ARM level was the highest since September 2008, but was still well below the monthly average ARM rate of nearly 50 percent over the last decade.
Meantime, federally-insured FHA loans continue to drive many first-time buyer purchases and some move-up activity. The low-down-payment loans made up 24.6 percent of Bay Area purchase lending last month, down from 25.4 percent in April but up from 23.9 percent a year ago and 8.1 percent two years ago.
Last month absentee buyers – mostly investors – purchased 14.6 percent of all Bay Area homes sold, paying a median $270,000. That’s down from 18.2 percent in April and 17.6 percent a year ago, when the median paid was $220,000. Buyers who appeared to have paid all cash – meaning there was no corresponding purchase loan found in the public record – accounted for 21.2 percent of sales in May, paying a median $275,000, which is up from a median $210,000 a year ago. The cash rate was 23.5 percent of sales in April this year and 26.2 percent in May 2009.
Home flipping has trended higher over the last year but eased in May. Last month 2.1 percent of the homes that sold on the open market had been flipped, meaning bought and re-sold within a six-month period. That was down from a Bay Area flipping rate of 2.6 percent in April and up from 1.1 percent a year earlier. Last month’s flipping rates varied from 1.2 percent in San Francisco to 2.9 percent in Solano County.
San Diego-based MDA DataQuick is a division of MDA Lending Solutions, a subsidiary of Vancouver-based MacDonald Dettwiler and Associates. MDA DataQuick monitors real estate activity nationwide and provides information to consumers, educational institutions, public agencies, lending institutions, title companies and industry analysts. Because of late data availability, sales were estimated in Alameda and San Mateo counties.
The typical monthly mortgage payment that Bay Area buyers committed themselves to paying was $1,739 last month, up from $1,607 the previous month, and up from $1,443 a year ago. Adjusted for inflation, last month’s payment was 34.7 percent below the typical payment in the spring of 1989, the peak of the prior real estate cycle. It was 51.7 percent below the current cycle's peak in July 2007.
Indicators of market distress continue to move in different directions. Foreclosure activity remains high by historical standards but below peak levels reached over the last two years. Financing with multiple mortgages is low, down payment sizes are stable, and non-owner occupied buying remains slightly above average, MDA DataQuick reported.
Sales Volume Median Price
All homes May-09 May-10 %Chng May-09 May-10 %Chng
Alameda 1477 1596 8.10% $330,000 $390,000 18.20%
Contra Costa 1,694 1,704 0.60% $234,500 $293,750 25.30%
Marin 220 264 20.00% $620,000 $675,500 9.00%
Napa 121 127 5.00% $370,000 $350,000 -5.40%
Santa Clara 1,688 2,164 28.20% $445,000 $525,000 18.00%
San Francisco 498 616 23.70% $634,000 $636,500 0.40%
San Mateo 516 640 24.00% $550,000 $605,000 10.00%
Solano 706 652 -7.60% $189,500 $219,000 15.60%
Sonoma 527 501 -4.90% $302,000 $335,000 10.90%
Bay Area 7,447 8,264 11.00% $341,500 $410,000 20.10%
Source: MDA DataQuick Information Systems, www.DQNews.com
Media calls: Andrew LePage (916) 456-7157 or John Karevoll (909) 867-9534
Copyright 2010 DataQuick Information Systems. All rights reserved.
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Friday, May 21, 2010
Mixed results for Bay Area April home sales
May 20, 2010
La Jolla, CA.----Bay Area home sales fell slightly below the year-ago level and remained well below average last month as increased high-end activity couldn’t offset sales declines in the lower-cost areas and in the new-home market. The continued shift toward a greater portion of sales occurring in higher-cost coastal communities helped the region’s median sale price rise nearly 22 percent from last year, but the median fell from March, a real estate information service reported.
Last month a total of 7,003 homes closed escrows in the nine-county Bay Area, up 0.2 percent from 6,992 in March but down 1.9 percent from 7,139 in April 2009, according to MDA DataQuick of San Diego.
On average, Bay Area sales have risen 4.2 percent between March and April each year since 1988, when DataQuick’s statistics begin. Last month’s sales tally was 24.5 percent below the April average of 9,278 sales since 1988, and was the second-lowest for an April since 1995.
The 368 newly built homes that closed escrow in April marked the lowest new-home total for that month since April 1993, when 342 sold.
Some of April’s sales activity might have been delayed until at least May as buyers decided to take advantage of new state tax credits that became effective May 1. The credits are for first-time buyers and those purchasing a new home.
“It’s not clear how many April sales might have been pushed into May or June by tax credits. The bigger picture is that the housing market will gradually be decoupled from government stimulus and be on its own again. For months we’ve seen growing signs of a recovery taking hold. But plenty of challenges remain like high unemployment, the possibility of many more distressed properties hitting the market in a rising interest rate environment, and a dysfunctional jumbo loan market, which is a big deal in the Bay Area,” said John Walsh, MDA DataQuick president.
Buyers paid a median $370,000 for all new and resale houses and condos that sold last month, down 2.6 percent from $380,000 in March but up 21.7 percent from $304,000 in April 2009.
The median has risen on a year-over-year basis for seven straight months. But in April it was still 44.4 percent below the $665,000 peak of June and July 2007.
The April median’s nearly 22 percent increase over a year ago is largely a reflection of the changes that have occurred in buying patterns across the region. A year ago many more homes being sold were inland foreclosures – homes that were often in less-than-stellar condition, and which had highly motivated sellers. Also a year ago, sales in many high-end communities were extremely sluggish. This spring the re-selling of foreclosures has waned and high-end activity is much stronger, in part because prices have come down, there’s more inventory in some areas and it appears high-end financing has loosened a bit.
Foreclosure resales – homes that had been foreclosed on in the prior 12 months – made up 29.5 percent of the Bay Area’s resale market last month. That was the lowest since May 2008 and was down from 31.3 percent in March and 46.4 percent in April 2009. Foreclosure resales peaked at 52.0 percent in February 2009.
As less-expensive foreclosures have waned the past year, activity in many mid-to high-priced neighborhoods has picked up, helping to explain the recent double-digit annual gains in the median sale price. Last month 35.1 percent of the homes sold in the Bay Area were priced $500,000 or above, up from 27.0 percent a year ago. However, $500,000-plus sales still lag their decade-long monthly average of 46.1 percent of all sales.
Viewed a different way, zip codes in the top one-third of the Bay Area market, based on their historical prices, accounted for 31.5 percent of existing single-family house sales last month, compared with 22.9 percent a year ago. The number of houses resold in the top one-third of the market in April was 23.3 percent higher than a year ago, while house resales in the bottom one-third of the market (the least expensive zip codes) fell 26.6 percent.
High-end sales would be stronger, and the region’s overall recovery more robust, if jumbo and adjustable-rate financing were easier to obtain.
Mortgages above the old conforming loan limit of $417,000 made up nearly 60 percent of all Bay Area home purchase loans before the credit crunch hit in August 2007. Last month $417,000-plus loans made up 31.6 percent.
Use of adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) remains far below historically normal levels, too. ARMs made up just 11.1 percent of Bay Area purchase loans last month. While that’s the highest since ARMs were 13.7 percent of purchase loans in September 2008, it’s a fraction of the monthly ARM average of nearly 50 percent since 2000.
Meanwhile, federally-insured FHA loans have kept the entry-level market humming. The low-down-payment loans, which are popular with first-time buyers and some move-up buyers, made up 25.6 percent of Bay Area purchase loans last month. That was down from 25.8 percent a year ago but up from 14.4 percent two years ago.
Last month absentee buyers – mostly investors – purchased 18.2 percent of all Bay Area homes sold, paying a median $249,500. That’s up from 17.0 percent in March and up from 17.3 percent a year ago. The monthly absentee buyer average over the past decade is 13.0 percent. Buyers who appeared to have paid all cash – meaning there was no corresponding purchase loan found in the public record – accounted for 25.5 percent of sales in April, paying a median $260,000.
Home flipping has trended higher of late. Last month 2.6 percent of the homes that sold had previously been sold between three weeks and six months prior. That was up from a Bay Area flipping rate of 2.3 percent in March and 1.6 percent a year earlier. Last month’s flipping rates varied from 1.4 percent in San Francisco to 3.7 percent in Solano County.
San Diego-based MDA DataQuick is a division of MDA Lending Solutions, a subsidiary of Vancouver-based MacDonald Dettwiler and Associates. MDA DataQuick monitors real estate activity nationwide and provides information to consumers, educational institutions, public agencies, lending institutions, title companies and industry analysts. Because of late data availability, sales were estimated in Alameda and San Mateo counties.
The typical monthly mortgage payment that Bay Area buyers committed themselves to paying was $1,607 last month, down from $1,626 the previous month, and up from $1,277 a year ago. Adjusted for inflation, current payments are 39.5 percent below typical payments in the spring of 1989, the peak of the prior real estate cycle. They are 55.3 percent below the current cycle's peak in July 2007.
Indicators of market distress continue to move in different directions. Foreclosure activity remains high by historical standards but below peak levels reached over the last two years. Financing with multiple mortgages is low, down payment sizes are stable, and non-owner occupied buying is above-average, MDA DataQuick reported.
Sales Volume Median Price
All homes Apr-09 Apr-10 %Chng Apr-09 Apr-10 %Chng
Alameda 1457 1319 -9.50% $289,197 $350,000 21.00%
Contra Costa 1,699 1,635 -3.80% $225,000 $273,000 21.30%
Marin 174 245 40.80% $585,000 $659,000 12.60%
Napa 99 104 5.10% $315,000 $335,000 6.30%
Santa Clara 1,606 1,656 3.10% $405,000 $489,000 20.70%
San Francisco 402 428 6.50% $628,500 $692,500 10.20%
San Mateo 444 556 25.20% $520,000 $580,000 11.50%
Solano 717 591 -17.60% $180,000 $202,000 12.20%
Sonoma 541 469 -13.30% $290,000 $318,000 9.70%
Bay Area 7,139 7,003 -1.90% $304,000 $370,000 21.70%
Source: MDA DataQuick Information Systems, www.DQNews.com
Media calls: Andrew LePage (916) 456-7157 or John Karevoll (909) 867-9534
Copyright 2010 DataQuick Information Systems. All rights reserved.
La Jolla, CA.----Bay Area home sales fell slightly below the year-ago level and remained well below average last month as increased high-end activity couldn’t offset sales declines in the lower-cost areas and in the new-home market. The continued shift toward a greater portion of sales occurring in higher-cost coastal communities helped the region’s median sale price rise nearly 22 percent from last year, but the median fell from March, a real estate information service reported.
Last month a total of 7,003 homes closed escrows in the nine-county Bay Area, up 0.2 percent from 6,992 in March but down 1.9 percent from 7,139 in April 2009, according to MDA DataQuick of San Diego.
On average, Bay Area sales have risen 4.2 percent between March and April each year since 1988, when DataQuick’s statistics begin. Last month’s sales tally was 24.5 percent below the April average of 9,278 sales since 1988, and was the second-lowest for an April since 1995.
The 368 newly built homes that closed escrow in April marked the lowest new-home total for that month since April 1993, when 342 sold.
Some of April’s sales activity might have been delayed until at least May as buyers decided to take advantage of new state tax credits that became effective May 1. The credits are for first-time buyers and those purchasing a new home.
“It’s not clear how many April sales might have been pushed into May or June by tax credits. The bigger picture is that the housing market will gradually be decoupled from government stimulus and be on its own again. For months we’ve seen growing signs of a recovery taking hold. But plenty of challenges remain like high unemployment, the possibility of many more distressed properties hitting the market in a rising interest rate environment, and a dysfunctional jumbo loan market, which is a big deal in the Bay Area,” said John Walsh, MDA DataQuick president.
Buyers paid a median $370,000 for all new and resale houses and condos that sold last month, down 2.6 percent from $380,000 in March but up 21.7 percent from $304,000 in April 2009.
The median has risen on a year-over-year basis for seven straight months. But in April it was still 44.4 percent below the $665,000 peak of June and July 2007.
The April median’s nearly 22 percent increase over a year ago is largely a reflection of the changes that have occurred in buying patterns across the region. A year ago many more homes being sold were inland foreclosures – homes that were often in less-than-stellar condition, and which had highly motivated sellers. Also a year ago, sales in many high-end communities were extremely sluggish. This spring the re-selling of foreclosures has waned and high-end activity is much stronger, in part because prices have come down, there’s more inventory in some areas and it appears high-end financing has loosened a bit.
Foreclosure resales – homes that had been foreclosed on in the prior 12 months – made up 29.5 percent of the Bay Area’s resale market last month. That was the lowest since May 2008 and was down from 31.3 percent in March and 46.4 percent in April 2009. Foreclosure resales peaked at 52.0 percent in February 2009.
As less-expensive foreclosures have waned the past year, activity in many mid-to high-priced neighborhoods has picked up, helping to explain the recent double-digit annual gains in the median sale price. Last month 35.1 percent of the homes sold in the Bay Area were priced $500,000 or above, up from 27.0 percent a year ago. However, $500,000-plus sales still lag their decade-long monthly average of 46.1 percent of all sales.
Viewed a different way, zip codes in the top one-third of the Bay Area market, based on their historical prices, accounted for 31.5 percent of existing single-family house sales last month, compared with 22.9 percent a year ago. The number of houses resold in the top one-third of the market in April was 23.3 percent higher than a year ago, while house resales in the bottom one-third of the market (the least expensive zip codes) fell 26.6 percent.
High-end sales would be stronger, and the region’s overall recovery more robust, if jumbo and adjustable-rate financing were easier to obtain.
Mortgages above the old conforming loan limit of $417,000 made up nearly 60 percent of all Bay Area home purchase loans before the credit crunch hit in August 2007. Last month $417,000-plus loans made up 31.6 percent.
Use of adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) remains far below historically normal levels, too. ARMs made up just 11.1 percent of Bay Area purchase loans last month. While that’s the highest since ARMs were 13.7 percent of purchase loans in September 2008, it’s a fraction of the monthly ARM average of nearly 50 percent since 2000.
Meanwhile, federally-insured FHA loans have kept the entry-level market humming. The low-down-payment loans, which are popular with first-time buyers and some move-up buyers, made up 25.6 percent of Bay Area purchase loans last month. That was down from 25.8 percent a year ago but up from 14.4 percent two years ago.
Last month absentee buyers – mostly investors – purchased 18.2 percent of all Bay Area homes sold, paying a median $249,500. That’s up from 17.0 percent in March and up from 17.3 percent a year ago. The monthly absentee buyer average over the past decade is 13.0 percent. Buyers who appeared to have paid all cash – meaning there was no corresponding purchase loan found in the public record – accounted for 25.5 percent of sales in April, paying a median $260,000.
Home flipping has trended higher of late. Last month 2.6 percent of the homes that sold had previously been sold between three weeks and six months prior. That was up from a Bay Area flipping rate of 2.3 percent in March and 1.6 percent a year earlier. Last month’s flipping rates varied from 1.4 percent in San Francisco to 3.7 percent in Solano County.
San Diego-based MDA DataQuick is a division of MDA Lending Solutions, a subsidiary of Vancouver-based MacDonald Dettwiler and Associates. MDA DataQuick monitors real estate activity nationwide and provides information to consumers, educational institutions, public agencies, lending institutions, title companies and industry analysts. Because of late data availability, sales were estimated in Alameda and San Mateo counties.
The typical monthly mortgage payment that Bay Area buyers committed themselves to paying was $1,607 last month, down from $1,626 the previous month, and up from $1,277 a year ago. Adjusted for inflation, current payments are 39.5 percent below typical payments in the spring of 1989, the peak of the prior real estate cycle. They are 55.3 percent below the current cycle's peak in July 2007.
Indicators of market distress continue to move in different directions. Foreclosure activity remains high by historical standards but below peak levels reached over the last two years. Financing with multiple mortgages is low, down payment sizes are stable, and non-owner occupied buying is above-average, MDA DataQuick reported.
Sales Volume Median Price
All homes Apr-09 Apr-10 %Chng Apr-09 Apr-10 %Chng
Alameda 1457 1319 -9.50% $289,197 $350,000 21.00%
Contra Costa 1,699 1,635 -3.80% $225,000 $273,000 21.30%
Marin 174 245 40.80% $585,000 $659,000 12.60%
Napa 99 104 5.10% $315,000 $335,000 6.30%
Santa Clara 1,606 1,656 3.10% $405,000 $489,000 20.70%
San Francisco 402 428 6.50% $628,500 $692,500 10.20%
San Mateo 444 556 25.20% $520,000 $580,000 11.50%
Solano 717 591 -17.60% $180,000 $202,000 12.20%
Sonoma 541 469 -13.30% $290,000 $318,000 9.70%
Bay Area 7,139 7,003 -1.90% $304,000 $370,000 21.70%
Source: MDA DataQuick Information Systems, www.DQNews.com
Media calls: Andrew LePage (916) 456-7157 or John Karevoll (909) 867-9534
Copyright 2010 DataQuick Information Systems. All rights reserved.
Thursday, April 15, 2010
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