March 18, 2010
La Jolla, CA.----Bay Area home sales were subpar again in February, dipping below the year-ago level for the second straight month as some potential buyers worried about job security, some couldn’t get financing and others found a thin inventory of homes for sale. The median price paid rose year-over-year for the fifth consecutive month, mainly because fewer low-cost foreclosures have sold and more higher-end homes have turned over this year compared with last, a real estate information service reported.
A total of 4,987 new and resale houses and condos closed escrow in the nine-county Bay Area last month. That was up 2.8 percent from 4,853 in January and down 0.9 percent from 5,032 in February 2009, according to MDA DataQuick of San Diego.
Last month’s sales fell 22.2 percent short of the February average of 6,413 sales since 1988, when DataQuick’s statistics begin.
February’s sales were the second-lowest for that month since 1995, behind the record-low 3,989 homes sold in February 2008. January and February this year are the only two months since August 2008 in which sales have fallen year-over-year.
“The sales and price data remain choppy, with more ups and downs and inconsistencies than we’d typically see. It’s partly the season – January and February are often atypical and don’t serve as good barometers. But it’s more than that. The market remains fundamentally off kilter. There’s still relatively little lending going on in the upper price ranges, and little adjustable-rate financing, which had been vital to the Bay Area. Investor and cash-only deals remain well above normal, as does the level of sales involving distressed property,” said John Walsh, MDA DataQuick president.
“Despite the widening stability seen in the housing market in recent months, the outlook remains murky,” he said. “Whether prices will firm, or remain firm, will depend largely on three factors: The market’s response as the government reduces its housing stimulus, the economy’s ability to gain traction, and the decisions that lenders and borrowers will make in countless distress cases. The key question is how much more distressed inventory is coming, and when.”
Foreclosure resales – homes that had been foreclosed on in the prior 12 months – rose to 36.6 percent of all homes resold last month, marking the fourth consecutive month in which foreclosure resales edged higher. Foreclosure resales peaked at 52 percent of resales in February 2009, then gradually fell and, in the fall, leveled off near 32 percent before starting to rise modestly.
The median price paid for all new and resale houses and condos sold in the nine-county Bay Area last month was $354,000. That was up 1.1 percent from $350,000 in January and up 20.0 percent from $295,000 in February 2009.
Last month’s median was 22.1 percent higher than the lowest point reached in the housing downturn – $290,000 last March – but it was still 46.8 percent lower than the $665,000 peak median reached in June and July of 2007.
Last month’s median rose 20 percent above February 2009 largely because a year ago low-cost foreclosures were far more plentiful, lower-cost inland areas represented a substantially larger portion of total sales, and high-end sales were very sluggish. That made for an unusually low February 2009 median of $295,000.
Sales over $500,000 made up 31.9 percent of all transactions last month, compared with 23.6 percent a year ago. High-end sales have risen in part because more distress has crept into that segment of the market, creating more motivated sellers. Other sellers have simply given up on holding out for yesterday’s higher prices, which were supported by what was then a relative abundance of financing, some quite creative, for high-end homes.
The availability of financing for costlier homes appears to have improved modestly in the last year, but those loans remain relatively expensive and hard to obtain.
Mortgages above $417,000 – formerly the definition of a jumbo loan – made up 26.3 percent of all home purchase loans last month. That was down from 27.3 percent in January but up from 18.3 percent a year ago. More than 60 percent of purchase loans were over $417,000 before the August 2007 credit crunch hit.
Another key form of financing for higher-cost homes – adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) – remains way below the historical norm. In February, 7.8 percent of Bay Area purchase loans were ARMs, up from 7.5 percent in January and 3.9 percent a year ago. ARMs averaged 61 percent of purchase loans each month between January 2000 and when the credit crunch began in August 2007. The 22-year monthly average for ARMs in the Bay Area is 47.0 percent.
Financing has flowed more easily for low- to mid-priced homes. Federally-insured, low-down-payment FHA loans, a popular choice among first-time buyers, made up 26.9 percent of Bay Area purchase loans last month. That was up from 23.3 percent a year ago and 1.4 percent two years ago.
Last month absentee buyers – mostly investors – purchased 19.4 percent of all Bay Area homes sold, the same as in January and up from 18.4 percent a year ago. The monthly absentee buyer average over the past decade is 13.0 percent. Buyers who appeared to have paid all cash – meaning there was no corresponding purchase loan found in the public record – accounted for a record 27.1 percent of sales in February, up from 25.7 percent in January and 24.4 percent a year ago.
Home flipping has trended higher lately but eased a bit last month, when 2.6 percent of the homes that sold had previously been sold between three weeks and six months prior. That was down from a flipping rate of 2.9 percent in January but up from 1.5 percent a year ago. Last month’s flipping rates varied from 1.3 percent of sales in Napa County to 3.6 percent in Solano County.
San Diego-based MDA DataQuick is a division of MDA Lending Solutions, a subsidiary of Vancouver-based MacDonald Dettwiler and Associates. MDA DataQuick monitors real estate activity nationwide and provides information to consumers, educational institutions, public agencies, lending institutions, title companies and industry analysts. Because of late data availability, sales were estimated in Alameda and San Mateo counties.
The typical monthly mortgage payment that Bay Area buyers committed themselves to paying was $1,519 last month, up from $1,508 the previous month, and up from $1,286 a year ago. Adjusted for inflation, current payments are 42.7 percent below typical payments in the spring of 1989, the peak of the prior real estate cycle. They are 57.7 percent below the current cycle's peak in July 2007.
Indicators of market distress continue to move in different directions. Foreclosure activity remains high by historical standards, with default notices on the rise again, but it’s well below peak levels reached over the last two years. Financing with multiple mortgages is low, down payment sizes are stable, and non-owner occupied buying is above-average, MDA DataQuick reported.
Sales Volume Median Price
All homes Feb-09 Feb-10 %Chng Feb-09 Feb-10 %Chng
Alameda 971 1016 4.60% $290,000 $333,500 15.00%
Contra Costa 1,283 1,065 -17.00% $216,500 $255,500 18.00%
Marin 111 153 37.80% $573,409 $615,000 7.30%
Napa 88 76 -13.60% $322,500 $320,000 -0.80%
Santa Clara 1,079 1,183 9.60% $408,750 $460,000 12.50%
San Francisco 272 327 20.20% $640,000 $627,500 -2.00%
San Mateo 311 328 5.50% $502,250 $554,000 10.30%
Solano 557 450 -19.20% $195,000 $208,500 6.90%
Sonoma 360 389 8.10% $282,000 $310,000 9.90%
Bay Area 5,032 4,987 -0.90% $295,000 $354,000 20.00%
Source: MDA DataQuick Information Systems, www.DQNews.com
Media calls: Andrew LePage (916) 456-7157 or John Karevoll (909) 867-9534
Copyright 2009 DataQuick Information Systems. All rights reserved.
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Thursday, March 4, 2010
Bay Area home sales fall; median price up from last year, down from December
February 18, 2010
La Jolla, CA.----The number of Bay Area homes sold in January fell more than usual from December and dropped below the year-ago level for the first time in 17 months. The median sale price rose above last year for the fourth straight month but dipped 8 percent from December as demand shifted more toward foreclosures and less-expensive inland homes, a real estate information service reported.
A total of 4,853 new and resale houses and condos closed escrow in the nine-county Bay Area last month. That was down 38.0 percent from 7,828 sales in December and down 3.9 percent from 5,050 sales in January 2009, according to MDA DataQuick of San Diego.
A decline in sales between December and January is normal for the season. On average, sales have dropped 28 percent between those two months since 1988, when DataQuick’s statistics begin.
Last month was the first since August 2008 in which sales fell on a year-over-year basis. January’s 4,853 sales total was 22.5 percent short of the average January tally – 6,261 – since 1988. Sales last month were also the second-lowest for a January since 1995, behind 3,586 sales in January 2007. The peak sales total for a January was in 2005, when 8,298 homes sold.
“The January figures show the market lost some of the momentum it had built up in the second half of ’09, when home buyers rushed to ensure they could take advantage of a tax credit, ultra-low mortgage rates and lower prices,” said John Walsh, MDA DataQuick president.
“It’s difficult to gauge how much of the slowdown stems from a thinner inventory of homes for sale in some areas as opposed to lower demand,” he said. “Whether last month’s relatively weak performance portends any substantial, lasting changes in the market is unclear. One month doesn’t make a trend and, in the past, January hasn’t proven to be very predictive.”
The January sales figures are based largely on deals that were struck during the holidays (late November through early January) and that closed escrow in January. In the Bay Area and across California, the sales data indicate that investors and first-time buyers remained the most committed home shoppers, and that helped skew the sales toward foreclosures and other lower-cost properties.
The median price paid for all new and resale houses and condos in the nine-county Bay Area last month was $350,000. That was down 7.9 percent from $380,000 in December but up 16.7 percent from $300,000 in January 2009.
Last month’s median was 20.7 percent higher than the lowest point reached in the housing downturn – $290,000 last March – but it was still 47.4 percent lower than the $665,000 peak median reached in June and July of 2007.
It’s not unusual for the Bay Area’s median sale price to fall between December and January. The average change between those two months over the past 22 years is a decline of 2.4 percent.
Last month’s median dipped more sharply from December as the portion of sales involving foreclosures and homes in lower-cost areas rose relative to December. However, the median remained higher than in January 2009 because a year ago low-cost foreclosures were far more plentiful, lower-cost inland areas represented a substantially larger portion of total sales, and high-end sales were extremely slow. All of that made for an unusually low January 2009 median of $300,000.
Foreclosure resales – homes that had been foreclosed on in the prior 12 months – rose to 36.6 percent of all homes resold last month, marking the second consecutive month in which foreclosure resales increased. Foreclosure resales peaked at 52 percent of resales in February 2009, then gradually fell and, in the fall, leveled off near 32 percent, rising slightly in December over November.
Though distress has certainly migrated up the price ladder, many foreclosed properties are still located in lower-cost inland suburbs and urban areas, where they spur resale activity. Total home sales in Contra Costa, Solano, Sonoma and Napa counties combined rose to 59.7 percent of total Bay Area sales last month, up from 57.6 percent in December but down from 67.1 percent a year ago.
Among all homes sold last month, transactions under $300,000 made up 40.4 percent of sales, up from 34.5 percent in December but down from 47.9 percent in January 2009.
Meanwhile, homes selling for over $500,000 made up 31.1 percent of sales last month, down from 35.7 percent in December but up from 22.7 percent a year ago.
The availability of financing for pricier homes improved modestly in recent months, but such “jumbo” loans remain relatively expensive and hard to obtain.
Mortgages above $417,000 – formerly the definition of a jumbo loan – made up 27.8 percent of all home purchase loans last month. That was down from 29.9 percent in December but up from 17.1 percent a year ago. More than 60 percent of purchase loans were over $417,000 before the August 2007 credit crunch hit.
Another critical form of financing for higher-cost homes – adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) – continues to be used far less than what’s been normal historically. In January, 7.5 percent of Bay Area purchase loans were ARMs, down from 7.9 in December but up from a record low of 3 percent a year ago. ARMs averaged 61 percent of purchase loans between January 2000 and August 2007.
Financing has flowed more freely for low- to mid-priced homes. Federally-insured, low-down-payment FHA loans, a popular choice among first-time buyers, made up 27.1 percent of Bay Area purchase loans last month. That was up from 25.6 percent in December, 24.7 percent a year ago and 0.7 percent two years ago.
Last month absentee buyers purchased 19.1 percent of all Bay Area homes sold, up from 17.3 percent in December but down from 19.3 percent a year ago. Buyers who appeared to have paid all cash – meaning there was no corresponding purchase loan – accounted for 24.8 percent of January sales, up from 23.6 percent in December and 24.4 percent a year ago, based on an analysis of public records.
Home flipping has trended a bit higher, too. Last month 2.9 percent of the homes sold had previously been sold between three weeks and six months prior. January’s flipping rate varied from as little as 1.8 percent of sales in Sonoma County to as much as 3.5 percent in Solano County.
San Diego-based MDA DataQuick is a division of MDA Lending Solutions, a subsidiary of Vancouver-based MacDonald Dettwiler and Associates. MDA DataQuick monitors real estate activity nationwide and provides information to consumers, educational institutions, public agencies, lending institutions, title companies and industry analysts. Because of late data availability, sales were estimated in Alameda and San Mateo counties.
The typical monthly mortgage payment that Bay Area buyers committed themselves to paying was $1,508 last month, down from $1,619 the previous month, and up from $1,297 a year ago. Adjusted for inflation, current payments are 42.7 percent below typical payments in the spring of 1989, the peak of the prior real estate cycle. They are 57.6 percent below the current cycle's peak in July 2007.
Indicators of market distress continue to move in different directions. Foreclosure activity is off its recent peak but remains high by historical standards, with mortgage default notices flattening or trending lower in some areas, but edging higher in others. Financing with multiple mortgages is low and down payment sizes are stable, MDA DataQuick reported.
Sales Volume Median Price
All homes Jan-09 Jan-10 %Chng Jan-09 Jan-10 %Chng
Alameda 994 936 -5.8% $300,000 $341,000 13.7%
Contra Costa 1,333 1,078 -19.1% $220,000 $257,250 16.9%
Marin 122 153 25.4% $525,000 $535,000 1.9%
Napa 78 87 11.5% $370,000 $350,000 -5.4%
Santa Clara 1,037 1,137 9.6% $400,000 $451,000 12.8%
San Francisco 229 311 35.8% $562,000 $629,000 11.9%
San Mateo 273 355 30.0% $489,500 $579,000 18.3%
Solano 560 462 -17.5% $192,500 $201,000 4.4%
Sonoma 424 334 -21.2% $299,750 $325,000 8.4%
Bay Area 5,050 4,853 -3.9% $300,000 $350,000 16.7%
Source: MDA DataQuick Information Systems, www.DQNews.com
La Jolla, CA.----The number of Bay Area homes sold in January fell more than usual from December and dropped below the year-ago level for the first time in 17 months. The median sale price rose above last year for the fourth straight month but dipped 8 percent from December as demand shifted more toward foreclosures and less-expensive inland homes, a real estate information service reported.
A total of 4,853 new and resale houses and condos closed escrow in the nine-county Bay Area last month. That was down 38.0 percent from 7,828 sales in December and down 3.9 percent from 5,050 sales in January 2009, according to MDA DataQuick of San Diego.
A decline in sales between December and January is normal for the season. On average, sales have dropped 28 percent between those two months since 1988, when DataQuick’s statistics begin.
Last month was the first since August 2008 in which sales fell on a year-over-year basis. January’s 4,853 sales total was 22.5 percent short of the average January tally – 6,261 – since 1988. Sales last month were also the second-lowest for a January since 1995, behind 3,586 sales in January 2007. The peak sales total for a January was in 2005, when 8,298 homes sold.
“The January figures show the market lost some of the momentum it had built up in the second half of ’09, when home buyers rushed to ensure they could take advantage of a tax credit, ultra-low mortgage rates and lower prices,” said John Walsh, MDA DataQuick president.
“It’s difficult to gauge how much of the slowdown stems from a thinner inventory of homes for sale in some areas as opposed to lower demand,” he said. “Whether last month’s relatively weak performance portends any substantial, lasting changes in the market is unclear. One month doesn’t make a trend and, in the past, January hasn’t proven to be very predictive.”
The January sales figures are based largely on deals that were struck during the holidays (late November through early January) and that closed escrow in January. In the Bay Area and across California, the sales data indicate that investors and first-time buyers remained the most committed home shoppers, and that helped skew the sales toward foreclosures and other lower-cost properties.
The median price paid for all new and resale houses and condos in the nine-county Bay Area last month was $350,000. That was down 7.9 percent from $380,000 in December but up 16.7 percent from $300,000 in January 2009.
Last month’s median was 20.7 percent higher than the lowest point reached in the housing downturn – $290,000 last March – but it was still 47.4 percent lower than the $665,000 peak median reached in June and July of 2007.
It’s not unusual for the Bay Area’s median sale price to fall between December and January. The average change between those two months over the past 22 years is a decline of 2.4 percent.
Last month’s median dipped more sharply from December as the portion of sales involving foreclosures and homes in lower-cost areas rose relative to December. However, the median remained higher than in January 2009 because a year ago low-cost foreclosures were far more plentiful, lower-cost inland areas represented a substantially larger portion of total sales, and high-end sales were extremely slow. All of that made for an unusually low January 2009 median of $300,000.
Foreclosure resales – homes that had been foreclosed on in the prior 12 months – rose to 36.6 percent of all homes resold last month, marking the second consecutive month in which foreclosure resales increased. Foreclosure resales peaked at 52 percent of resales in February 2009, then gradually fell and, in the fall, leveled off near 32 percent, rising slightly in December over November.
Though distress has certainly migrated up the price ladder, many foreclosed properties are still located in lower-cost inland suburbs and urban areas, where they spur resale activity. Total home sales in Contra Costa, Solano, Sonoma and Napa counties combined rose to 59.7 percent of total Bay Area sales last month, up from 57.6 percent in December but down from 67.1 percent a year ago.
Among all homes sold last month, transactions under $300,000 made up 40.4 percent of sales, up from 34.5 percent in December but down from 47.9 percent in January 2009.
Meanwhile, homes selling for over $500,000 made up 31.1 percent of sales last month, down from 35.7 percent in December but up from 22.7 percent a year ago.
The availability of financing for pricier homes improved modestly in recent months, but such “jumbo” loans remain relatively expensive and hard to obtain.
Mortgages above $417,000 – formerly the definition of a jumbo loan – made up 27.8 percent of all home purchase loans last month. That was down from 29.9 percent in December but up from 17.1 percent a year ago. More than 60 percent of purchase loans were over $417,000 before the August 2007 credit crunch hit.
Another critical form of financing for higher-cost homes – adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) – continues to be used far less than what’s been normal historically. In January, 7.5 percent of Bay Area purchase loans were ARMs, down from 7.9 in December but up from a record low of 3 percent a year ago. ARMs averaged 61 percent of purchase loans between January 2000 and August 2007.
Financing has flowed more freely for low- to mid-priced homes. Federally-insured, low-down-payment FHA loans, a popular choice among first-time buyers, made up 27.1 percent of Bay Area purchase loans last month. That was up from 25.6 percent in December, 24.7 percent a year ago and 0.7 percent two years ago.
Last month absentee buyers purchased 19.1 percent of all Bay Area homes sold, up from 17.3 percent in December but down from 19.3 percent a year ago. Buyers who appeared to have paid all cash – meaning there was no corresponding purchase loan – accounted for 24.8 percent of January sales, up from 23.6 percent in December and 24.4 percent a year ago, based on an analysis of public records.
Home flipping has trended a bit higher, too. Last month 2.9 percent of the homes sold had previously been sold between three weeks and six months prior. January’s flipping rate varied from as little as 1.8 percent of sales in Sonoma County to as much as 3.5 percent in Solano County.
San Diego-based MDA DataQuick is a division of MDA Lending Solutions, a subsidiary of Vancouver-based MacDonald Dettwiler and Associates. MDA DataQuick monitors real estate activity nationwide and provides information to consumers, educational institutions, public agencies, lending institutions, title companies and industry analysts. Because of late data availability, sales were estimated in Alameda and San Mateo counties.
The typical monthly mortgage payment that Bay Area buyers committed themselves to paying was $1,508 last month, down from $1,619 the previous month, and up from $1,297 a year ago. Adjusted for inflation, current payments are 42.7 percent below typical payments in the spring of 1989, the peak of the prior real estate cycle. They are 57.6 percent below the current cycle's peak in July 2007.
Indicators of market distress continue to move in different directions. Foreclosure activity is off its recent peak but remains high by historical standards, with mortgage default notices flattening or trending lower in some areas, but edging higher in others. Financing with multiple mortgages is low and down payment sizes are stable, MDA DataQuick reported.
Sales Volume Median Price
All homes Jan-09 Jan-10 %Chng Jan-09 Jan-10 %Chng
Alameda 994 936 -5.8% $300,000 $341,000 13.7%
Contra Costa 1,333 1,078 -19.1% $220,000 $257,250 16.9%
Marin 122 153 25.4% $525,000 $535,000 1.9%
Napa 78 87 11.5% $370,000 $350,000 -5.4%
Santa Clara 1,037 1,137 9.6% $400,000 $451,000 12.8%
San Francisco 229 311 35.8% $562,000 $629,000 11.9%
San Mateo 273 355 30.0% $489,500 $579,000 18.3%
Solano 560 462 -17.5% $192,500 $201,000 4.4%
Sonoma 424 334 -21.2% $299,750 $325,000 8.4%
Bay Area 5,050 4,853 -3.9% $300,000 $350,000 16.7%
Source: MDA DataQuick Information Systems, www.DQNews.com
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